Risk management: Evaluating the role of a National Risk Avoidance Policy in limiting the spread of Coronavirus: Perspective from Saudi Arabia

نوع المستند : المقالة الأصلية

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کلية التجارة - جامعة المنصورة - قسم الإحصاء

المستخلص

This research aims to present a "National Risk Management Policy" NRMP as a proposed scheme to help the country curb the spread of Covid-19. This scheme helps determine the classification for each country according to the severity and the evolutionary stage of the virus in that country.  Also, analyze the risks of spreading the Corona virus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by evaluating the role of a National Risk Avoidance Policy (NRAP) and a (NRMP) in limiting the spread and reduce the risk of the virus. Moreover, it assesses the Saudi state’s performance regarding Covid-19 by analyzing the indicators of the virus and its evolution. Where the study found that the logistic growth model is the most appropriate to study confirmed cases. A prediction performed using this model found that the pandemic is supposed to fade "theoretically" during September 2020. According to proposed scheme and based on an analysis of Covid-19’s indicators in Saudi Arabia until the date of July 23, 2020 a classification OC can be established for Saudi Arabia, which means that the evolutionary stage of the virus in Saudi Arabia is C and color O (Orang) reflect its severity which is decreasing.

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